* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 17 16 20 24 25 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 17 16 20 24 25 28 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 21 21 24 25 32 40 45 41 28 20 23 31 28 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 7 8 5 -4 -3 -8 -7 0 0 4 0 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 266 264 257 240 244 260 255 287 283 285 268 244 221 218 239 236 258 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.5 29.0 29.6 29.7 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 151 154 151 158 153 152 147 155 165 167 174 171 169 172 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 12 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 59 60 58 61 56 59 57 62 62 65 62 63 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 75 71 62 40 29 30 22 38 38 19 -9 -10 -29 -4 34 64 200 MB DIV -2 -7 13 35 23 -16 -13 -4 -12 20 39 29 44 32 52 34 33 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -1 -3 -8 1 -1 -10 6 -4 4 6 -5 6 -5 -2 -12 LAND (KM) 718 684 608 429 253 31 307 327 233 201 260 165 45 -28 37 -80 -286 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.8 14.4 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 52.2 53.9 55.5 57.1 60.6 64.1 68.0 71.9 76.0 80.1 84.1 87.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 17 17 18 19 20 19 20 19 18 16 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 38 42 48 38 53 61 60 34 34 56 31 7 9 9 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 45. 49. 52. 53. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -11. -20. -32. -40. -42. -43. -46. -50. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -5. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 50.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.30 1.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.77 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.5% 8.4% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 8.7% 4.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 7.2% 4.5% 3.0% 0.1% 0.4% 2.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 3.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 08/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/14/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 17 16 20 24 25 28 26 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT