* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/13/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 32 30 32 36 41 45 49 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 32 30 32 36 33 34 38 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 28 26 22 19 17 17 18 25 28 31 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 6 15 19 28 29 34 24 17 18 15 13 11 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 9 9 2 0 1 1 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 358 15 257 257 267 267 250 252 250 277 257 306 289 327 319 337 317 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.0 29.2 30.7 30.3 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 142 147 141 143 146 149 148 155 153 156 173 173 173 173 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 65 66 64 62 59 61 58 61 61 64 63 63 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 86 75 75 71 58 26 13 6 -21 -32 -22 -11 0 -11 -42 -37 200 MB DIV 11 -11 -6 -11 4 31 12 -4 -10 0 27 7 -10 1 3 -11 -7 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -11 -12 -9 1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4 3 -3 LAND (KM) 1213 1099 1019 955 900 850 655 391 217 9 35 64 -34 48 43 124 130 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.7 13.8 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.7 45.0 46.3 47.6 50.5 53.4 56.4 59.3 62.2 65.0 67.8 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 27 24 31 32 35 42 50 48 62 61 36 97 79 72 107 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 39. 43. 46. 48. 50. 52. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -0. -6. -13. -17. -19. -19. -21. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 42.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/13/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 30.0 to 152.9 0.73 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.5 -4.5 to -89.2 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.9% 9.5% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 10.3% 6.6% 1.5% 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 8.9% 5.6% 3.4% 0.2% 0.8% 4.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 4.9% 2.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 08/13/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/13/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 32 30 32 36 33 34 38 41 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 32 33 30 28 30 34 31 32 36 39 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 28 29 26 24 26 30 27 28 32 35 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 22 19 17 19 23 20 21 25 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT