* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/13/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 35 33 31 30 32 36 38 41 43 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 35 33 31 30 32 36 38 41 43 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 27 24 20 17 16 16 16 17 18 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 2 6 20 22 34 33 32 21 27 16 18 13 17 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 9 9 -1 3 0 0 -3 -4 0 -4 -3 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 102 309 339 246 247 269 251 252 243 270 270 285 288 314 283 337 316 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 144 144 142 147 140 144 144 148 149 152 152 155 153 159 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 65 65 60 58 60 60 62 63 67 65 67 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 14 14 14 14 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 83 79 69 68 68 37 7 4 -13 -36 -54 -27 -56 -45 -69 -75 200 MB DIV -1 3 -14 -11 -7 -7 21 4 -4 -3 46 7 9 -7 20 -1 -20 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -10 -8 -10 -4 4 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1370 1256 1155 1072 1014 898 857 568 385 199 24 15 92 120 167 116 215 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.5 14.7 15.9 16.9 17.7 18.3 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.9 43.2 44.5 45.8 48.6 51.5 54.4 57.2 59.8 62.1 64.4 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 12 10 10 10 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 26 27 27 37 33 37 42 43 44 48 59 54 53 56 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 34. 39. 43. 45. 47. 48. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -3. -11. -15. -19. -20. -22. -22. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 40.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/13/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.72 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -25.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 13.5% 9.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.3% 5.3% 1.3% 0.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 10.1% 5.4% 3.3% 0.2% 1.0% 4.3% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 5.5% 2.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 08/13/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/13/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 35 33 31 30 32 36 38 41 43 48 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 34 34 32 30 29 31 35 37 40 42 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 30 30 28 26 25 27 31 33 36 38 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 23 21 19 18 20 24 26 29 31 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT