* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 40 42 40 38 36 38 41 45 47 51 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 40 42 40 38 36 38 41 45 47 51 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 29 25 22 20 19 19 20 22 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 2 3 14 18 29 29 32 27 23 21 19 14 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 6 9 4 1 3 3 0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 98 83 349 327 279 277 273 250 252 258 285 286 307 298 320 295 37 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 145 145 145 144 143 141 145 145 148 151 152 154 155 151 157 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 64 62 65 64 60 58 60 57 61 60 62 60 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 15 13 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 89 84 79 68 63 56 25 3 -2 -25 -55 -49 -57 -53 -67 -79 200 MB DIV -25 -7 11 -8 -1 7 9 4 1 -10 4 -10 -7 -30 24 -10 6 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -10 -9 -7 -6 2 -1 1 -2 6 6 6 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1478 1361 1240 1141 1057 926 852 739 477 324 130 12 16 82 75 109 68 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.5 12.5 13.6 14.7 15.8 16.7 17.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.7 42.0 43.2 44.5 47.1 49.9 52.6 55.3 58.0 60.5 62.9 65.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 24 27 27 29 30 34 40 43 45 54 17 57 53 54 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 44. 46. 48. 49. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -0. -7. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 15. 17. 15. 13. 11. 13. 16. 20. 22. 26. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 39.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.72 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.6% 10.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.2% 4.8% 1.2% 0.4% 2.2% 2.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 9.5% 5.6% 3.5% 0.2% 0.8% 4.6% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 5.7% 2.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.4% 2.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 08/12/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/12/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 34 40 42 40 38 36 38 41 45 47 51 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 32 38 40 38 36 34 36 39 43 45 49 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 33 35 33 31 29 31 34 38 40 44 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 25 27 25 23 21 23 26 30 32 36 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT