* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 33 38 44 48 49 47 46 46 47 49 50 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 33 38 44 48 49 47 46 46 47 49 50 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 39 39 36 32 28 26 25 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 17 18 29 28 32 22 24 18 22 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 5 2 9 1 1 4 2 -3 -4 0 -6 -6 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 359 58 76 49 39 293 284 256 254 246 262 273 289 284 299 289 329 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 143 146 145 149 141 141 145 147 149 152 152 153 154 155 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 7 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 72 68 66 68 65 60 57 61 60 58 60 59 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 87 90 88 85 70 67 52 14 0 -23 -36 -67 -61 -84 -79 -94 200 MB DIV -36 -26 -10 0 -13 -16 19 21 2 10 -15 16 -7 9 -5 5 -4 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -5 -5 -6 -7 -7 0 -2 -3 2 1 5 2 2 0 4 LAND (KM) 1478 1450 1373 1268 1165 1019 893 871 660 452 295 79 44 140 267 344 408 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.9 14.2 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.3 40.4 41.5 42.7 45.0 47.7 50.5 53.4 56.0 58.7 61.0 63.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 13 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 26 27 31 33 37 40 46 43 56 53 45 50 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 29. 35. 41. 45. 47. 49. 49. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. -2. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 24. 22. 21. 21. 22. 24. 25. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 38.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.73 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -5.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.4% 5.6% 1.7% 0.7% 3.6% 3.1% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 9.7% 5.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.6% 5.8% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/12/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 30 33 38 44 48 49 47 46 46 47 49 50 52 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 43 47 48 46 45 45 46 48 49 51 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 38 42 43 41 40 40 41 43 44 46 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 29 33 34 32 31 31 32 34 35 37 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT