* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 46 52 53 53 51 51 50 48 46 49 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 46 52 53 53 51 51 50 48 46 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 42 42 41 38 34 30 27 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 5 3 1 10 15 19 23 30 24 24 21 26 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 0 6 7 1 2 -2 -4 -6 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 54 42 43 50 16 113 289 287 245 255 242 273 283 307 290 297 307 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 144 142 143 145 144 145 137 140 142 146 147 150 151 152 153 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 72 70 65 69 69 68 59 60 57 58 59 63 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 97 91 91 92 84 75 69 38 19 -4 -23 -55 -71 -88 -83 -84 200 MB DIV -8 -25 -13 -7 0 -21 20 20 26 0 14 15 6 9 -15 -1 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -14 -14 -13 -6 -7 0 0 -3 0 4 5 9 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1569 1531 1523 1457 1329 1130 967 867 868 594 423 272 92 127 206 344 436 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.8 11.2 12.1 13.2 14.5 15.8 17.1 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.5 38.7 39.8 41.1 43.5 46.1 48.8 51.4 54.1 56.6 59.1 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 19 20 22 27 27 35 29 31 39 43 40 50 47 48 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 28. 35. 41. 44. 46. 48. 49. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 21. 27. 28. 28. 26. 26. 25. 23. 21. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 36.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.71 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -22.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 14.1% 9.7% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.2% 7.1% 2.5% 1.2% 5.2% 5.8% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 11.3% 6.2% 3.9% 0.4% 1.9% 6.0% 1.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.2% 7.1% 3.6% 1.9% 0.2% 0.9% 3.0% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/12/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 41 46 52 53 53 51 51 50 48 46 49 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 39 44 50 51 51 49 49 48 46 44 47 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 39 45 46 46 44 44 43 41 39 42 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 31 37 38 38 36 36 35 33 31 34 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT