* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/12/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 37 45 51 57 59 57 54 53 53 51 50 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 37 45 51 57 59 57 54 53 53 51 50 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 45 47 45 42 38 34 31 29 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 4 6 4 6 15 13 24 24 31 20 26 18 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 3 1 4 6 0 6 6 4 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 57 48 31 68 52 4 281 282 252 241 243 268 296 321 298 327 325 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 143 143 143 144 143 141 138 135 140 144 145 148 149 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 70 72 65 65 69 68 63 61 59 58 60 63 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 16 17 16 16 14 12 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 108 105 96 99 97 80 74 50 22 3 -28 -57 -74 -88 -98 -77 200 MB DIV 4 -18 -23 -12 12 1 -22 -5 23 1 -8 -20 12 -7 19 -20 9 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -12 -12 -13 -12 -3 -3 3 4 7 12 7 4 6 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1608 1554 1538 1510 1433 1220 1064 959 941 785 582 440 291 283 328 356 406 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.6 11.0 11.8 13.2 14.6 16.3 17.9 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.9 36.5 37.7 38.9 40.0 42.3 44.5 47.0 49.5 52.3 55.1 57.6 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 11 11 12 14 14 16 15 14 10 8 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 22 19 20 25 25 27 33 29 28 35 39 41 53 46 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 28. 35. 40. 44. 46. 48. 48. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. -1. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 26. 32. 34. 32. 29. 28. 28. 26. 25. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 34.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/12/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.70 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.5% 10.5% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 14.9% 10.0% 4.3% 1.9% 7.6% 7.5% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 13.3% 7.7% 4.8% 0.7% 2.8% 6.8% 1.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.4% 8.1% 4.3% 2.4% 0.3% 1.4% 3.4% 1.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/12/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 37 45 51 57 59 57 54 53 53 51 50 53 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 34 42 48 54 56 54 51 50 50 48 47 50 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 37 43 49 51 49 46 45 45 43 42 45 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 28 34 40 42 40 37 36 36 34 33 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT