* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/11/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 66 63 60 55 52 51 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 66 63 60 55 52 51 47 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 49 52 51 46 40 34 29 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 9 8 6 2 0 10 16 22 24 35 28 25 25 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 2 0 0 4 8 7 5 9 13 2 0 -3 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 330 54 44 41 78 349 1 249 253 234 243 245 280 289 310 325 7 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 137 137 140 140 138 138 139 136 142 143 146 150 151 155 155 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 72 71 70 66 71 70 65 59 59 54 58 59 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 19 17 18 17 15 14 12 10 8 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 103 104 108 101 94 96 90 76 42 12 -5 -43 -70 -86 -115 -98 200 MB DIV 27 17 -7 -20 -9 -4 4 31 38 25 9 -12 16 13 19 -27 27 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -5 -9 -9 -12 -8 -5 1 5 4 12 16 4 5 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1691 1670 1635 1595 1581 1498 1291 1125 1010 939 668 508 299 296 331 383 475 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.0 13.0 14.3 15.9 17.6 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.9 35.0 36.2 37.2 39.6 42.1 44.8 47.8 50.8 53.9 56.9 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 14 16 17 17 16 13 10 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 14 16 20 18 20 22 31 27 36 33 39 44 48 52 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 44. 46. 47. 48. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. -2. -6. -10. -12. -17. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 32. 38. 41. 38. 35. 30. 27. 26. 22. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 32.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/11/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.68 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -21.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.3% 10.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 11.7% 7.1% 1.8% 0.7% 3.5% 3.9% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 10.8% 6.2% 3.8% 0.3% 1.3% 5.9% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/11/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 40 50 57 63 66 63 60 55 52 51 47 46 47 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 47 54 60 63 60 57 52 49 48 44 43 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 47 53 56 53 50 45 42 41 37 36 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 37 43 46 43 40 35 32 31 27 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT