* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL102026 10/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 46 42 36 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 46 42 36 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 48 45 39 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 37 47 59 62 65 62 50 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 13 8 12 17 -4 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 228 219 213 214 214 216 221 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 21.9 23.0 21.1 21.1 16.5 14.5 13.1 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 87 94 86 86 73 69 69 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.2 -48.9 -47.8 -48.9 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.3 1.3 1.0 2.6 4.0 4.3 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 43 47 49 45 38 32 30 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 28 30 34 34 30 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 80 105 137 179 168 127 101 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 71 52 46 58 41 36 44 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -18 -27 -72 -116 -62 -89 -18 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 387 366 386 361 363 379 307 316 666 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.3 38.9 39.5 40.5 41.4 43.1 43.9 44.3 44.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.9 67.6 66.4 64.2 62.0 57.3 54.3 50.8 45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 15 19 19 15 12 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 1. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -19. -24. -30. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 38.3 68.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102026 JOSEPHINE 10/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 69.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.84 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -10.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.07 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102026 JOSEPHINE 10/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102026 JOSEPHINE 10/22/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 48 46 42 36 31 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 50 48 44 38 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 45 39 34 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 41 35 30 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT