* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL102026 10/22/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 51 49 46 39 32 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 51 49 46 39 32 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 53 51 49 43 33 25 20 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 37 47 59 62 65 54 43 47 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 10 6 19 1 1 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 236 227 217 214 213 213 216 227 230 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 23.8 21.7 23.9 20.2 18.1 14.6 14.1 11.3 18.7 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 96 86 100 83 77 69 68 68 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -49.7 -48.3 -48.4 -49.4 -51.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.5 1.8 3.3 4.2 5.6 5.2 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 40 43 49 50 43 38 31 43 60 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 30 33 34 31 26 19 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 67 83 113 147 212 147 104 105 174 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 77 72 55 48 42 43 59 67 122 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -14 -42 -79 -96 -94 -51 -52 -135 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 444 403 360 407 360 348 311 285 441 933 1593 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 38.2 38.9 39.7 40.5 42.5 44.0 44.2 44.6 44.1 43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.5 68.6 67.8 65.9 64.0 59.1 55.0 52.0 48.2 41.6 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 13 17 19 19 14 12 19 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -7. -9. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -16. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 1. -5. -16. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -9. -16. -23. -30. -33. -40. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.5 69.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102026 JOSEPHINE 10/22/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.84 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.63 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -3.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102026 JOSEPHINE 10/22/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102026 JOSEPHINE 10/22/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 51 49 46 39 32 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 49 46 39 32 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 46 39 32 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 35 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT