* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 49 42 39 36 39 38 35 34 31 35 51 66 80 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 49 42 39 36 39 38 35 34 31 34 50 65 79 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 54 52 46 37 28 23 20 21 22 22 25 30 35 41 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 31 35 47 63 76 60 40 46 54 43 54 32 20 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 8 7 8 14 13 -4 -1 -1 6 17 26 15 0 8 6 SHEAR DIR 229 236 234 226 216 212 214 215 213 231 237 204 194 211 229 242 246 SST (C) 24.8 25.1 24.8 21.7 23.2 16.2 10.4 9.1 10.0 14.0 21.9 19.4 16.0 12.6 1.3 3.8 3.9 POT. INT. (KT) 100 104 103 87 96 75 66 59 65 74 95 86 79 75 66 64 61 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -50.2 -49.2 -47.8 -48.6 -51.4 -53.7 -53.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -48.9 -47.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 4.7 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 35 35 38 41 45 45 35 32 39 34 42 36 44 61 67 85 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 26 27 30 35 33 31 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 66 84 112 191 113 78 87 106 90 84 102 218 354 302 234 200 MB DIV 46 62 63 68 41 57 29 40 31 -11 69 27 65 30 -178 -85 -67 700-850 TADV 4 1 -3 -17 -49 -177 -134 -66 1 -9 -96 -208 -276 -90 43 26 8 LAND (KM) 480 444 407 342 360 287 161 60 165 501 1226 1513 475 60 360 551 406 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.5 38.1 39.0 40.0 42.4 45.5 46.4 45.4 42.5 40.7 42.6 49.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.6 69.5 69.0 68.0 66.3 61.2 56.5 55.0 54.8 50.6 40.2 27.8 15.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 10 14 19 25 15 1 12 31 46 49 60 52 24 14 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -7. -5. -1. 0. 2. 1. 3. 9. 21. 28. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -14. -15. -15. -18. -18. -17. -9. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 6. 3. -8. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -8. -10. -9. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -16. -19. -16. -17. -20. -21. -24. -20. -4. 11. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.1 69.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.84 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -18.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.16 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/21/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 52 49 42 39 36 39 38 35 34 31 34 50 65 79 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 48 41 38 35 38 37 34 33 30 33 49 64 78 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 46 39 36 33 36 35 32 31 28 31 47 62 76 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 35 32 29 32 31 28 27 24 27 43 58 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT