* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 47 43 39 35 34 39 39 51 55 59 59 67 76 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 47 43 39 35 31 39 38 50 55 58 59 67 76 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 49 47 44 38 29 27 26 27 31 33 31 32 35 37 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 25 29 29 37 61 71 75 53 40 64 60 54 29 15 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 7 7 6 21 5 -3 -3 12 21 5 3 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 236 230 235 236 224 215 213 212 209 206 207 196 233 240 241 231 241 SST (C) 25.0 25.4 25.4 23.4 20.5 16.6 10.9 9.5 8.6 10.1 17.5 13.1 11.6 4.6 4.0 4.0 3.6 POT. INT. (KT) 102 106 107 94 82 76 69 63 63 69 81 75 74 67 62 60 62 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -49.6 -47.7 -47.3 -47.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -47.6 -46.6 -46.3 -45.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 2.9 4.3 5.3 2.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.3 4.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 35 36 36 38 42 46 42 30 35 44 51 58 66 75 86 86 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 26 26 30 35 33 30 26 22 30 31 27 20 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 44 58 88 159 168 128 77 117 202 270 188 290 327 225 217 200 MB DIV 27 48 68 61 63 50 41 50 32 86 89 104 83 38 -25 -39 -206 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -6 -24 -131 -180 -147 -56 -30 -50 -105 -54 -3 -9 -11 -21 LAND (KM) 464 420 381 312 269 233 166 2 -11 294 1050 1070 411 369 372 434 612 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.7 38.2 39.0 39.9 42.1 45.5 47.5 47.1 45.5 44.9 50.3 58.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.6 69.4 68.9 67.8 63.4 57.8 54.4 53.0 49.6 39.5 25.4 12.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 11 15 24 23 8 8 24 47 58 44 22 9 5 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -3. 2. 6. 11. 12. 17. 28. 38. 44. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -12. -12. -13. -16. -17. -16. -7. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -7. -6. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 2. 7. 6. 1. -6. -13. -2. -1. -8. -16. -19. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -8. -11. -11. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -11. -11. 1. 5. 9. 9. 17. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.3 69.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.03 0.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.71 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.02 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.23 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/21/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 49 47 43 39 35 31 39 38 50 55 58 59 67 76 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 46 42 38 34 30 38 37 49 54 57 58 66 75 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 39 35 31 27 35 34 46 51 54 55 63 72 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 34 30 26 22 30 29 41 46 49 50 58 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT