* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932026 10/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 44 41 39 40 40 42 39 46 45 50 53 67 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 44 41 39 40 38 40 38 44 43 48 52 65 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 42 41 38 37 32 28 22 21 23 24 23 24 28 N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 31 25 28 29 49 67 77 59 44 50 69 62 50 25 7 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 4 5 5 19 15 -6 2 4 22 12 14 4 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 224 236 234 238 241 216 212 213 209 207 215 200 210 262 263 212 N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.6 24.7 22.6 17.0 12.5 8.1 9.1 13.8 20.5 15.4 12.9 10.3 1.3 4.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 105 108 102 90 75 71 64 63 71 89 78 75 72 66 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -49.9 -48.5 -46.8 -47.4 -50.7 -51.0 -52.1 -50.3 -47.4 -45.6 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.0 2.1 4.1 4.9 5.2 2.4 3.0 2.5 3.0 4.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 37 39 47 46 36 31 36 46 54 62 65 76 87 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 26 27 26 32 38 35 30 23 29 28 27 23 23 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 46 43 36 53 103 199 123 107 137 141 191 161 222 264 282 N/A 200 MB DIV 46 32 47 66 61 43 44 30 24 34 69 43 106 23 -135 -84 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 3 1 -4 -79 -247 -164 -96 -13 -64 -76 -124 16 23 0 N/A LAND (KM) 492 448 395 334 259 235 138 43 41 241 780 1590 497 220 442 563 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.5 38.0 38.7 39.5 41.5 44.0 46.9 46.6 44.5 43.1 46.6 54.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.4 69.5 69.4 68.9 66.1 60.8 56.5 55.0 52.6 44.5 31.7 17.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 11 19 25 11 8 21 40 55 56 37 24 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -1. 5. 9. 14. 15. 20. 28. 40. 47. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -11. -13. -15. -19. -22. -22. -13. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -16. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 12. 8. 0. -11. -4. -6. -7. -13. -13. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -12. -13. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -9. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -5. -3. -6. 1. -0. 5. 8. 22. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.1 69.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.05 0.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.08 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.6% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932026 INVEST 10/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932026 INVEST 10/21/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 44 44 41 39 40 38 40 38 44 43 48 52 65 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 40 38 39 37 39 37 43 42 47 51 64 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 37 35 36 34 36 34 40 39 44 48 61 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 32 30 31 29 31 29 35 34 39 43 56 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT