* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/10/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 83 69 56 44 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 65 48 39 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 66 48 39 33 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 59 54 49 42 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 10 7 6 5 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 240 237 227 221 215 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 26.7 25.8 25.0 24.4 22.7 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 122 112 105 101 93 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.2 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 54 57 54 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 27 23 21 19 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 7 3 20 2 2 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 106 85 80 50 79 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 67 98 49 40 26 0 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 19 -112 -236 -341 -452 -602 -459 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.4 32.6 33.7 34.7 37.1 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.7 86.8 86.8 86.9 84.4 80.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 10 12 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 17 CX,CY: 3/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -8. -19. -27. -33. -38. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -26. -39. -51. -67. -81. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.2 86.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/10/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 72.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.56 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.74 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.54 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/10/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/10/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 0( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 65 48 39 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 77 68 63 58 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 95 92 91 82 77 72 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 80 75 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT