* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/09/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 86 71 57 34 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 100 72 53 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 77 55 42 31 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 52 60 55 45 36 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 3 7 7 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 234 242 241 228 219 225 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.3 27.0 26.1 25.3 23.9 22.1 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 142 125 115 108 99 91 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 55 56 54 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 26 24 22 17 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 36 7 2 11 -5 11 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 115 126 112 65 57 52 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 50 84 87 56 36 9 0 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 204 64 -78 -184 -290 -537 -597 -383 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.8 31.1 32.2 33.3 35.4 37.9 40.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.0 86.8 87.1 87.4 86.5 83.1 78.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 15 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 2 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -2. -5. -13. -23. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -9. -21. -32. -40. -47. -47. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -19. -34. -48. -70. -89. -98. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 28.5 87.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 70.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.43 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.60 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 100 72 53 41 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 76 57 45 35 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 82 70 60 57 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 83 73 70 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 76 73 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 IN 6HR 105 100 91 85 82 77 74 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT