* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/09/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 97 83 70 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 105 97 72 53 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 107 102 78 56 36 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 39 53 57 54 41 34 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 8 3 2 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 239 231 239 237 215 216 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.2 28.5 27.2 26.1 24.6 23.1 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 156 145 128 115 103 95 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.5 -51.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 52 55 54 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 29 26 26 20 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 67 48 7 5 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 113 126 124 108 49 69 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 44 78 70 51 16 -3 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 206 97 -52 -184 -412 -587 -494 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.3 29.5 30.9 32.2 34.4 36.5 39.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.3 86.9 87.0 87.1 87.3 85.1 80.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 12 12 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 9 9 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. -1. -9. -19. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -17. -27. -37. -46. -46. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -2. -2. -8. -17. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -8. -22. -35. -59. -77. -92. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.0 87.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 64.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.43 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.46 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 30.0 to 152.9 0.00 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.63 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 20( 42) 0( 42) 0( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 97 72 53 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 96 71 52 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 76 57 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 76 58 52 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 68 62 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 79 73 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 IN 12HR 105 105 97 88 82 78 72 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43