* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/09/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 83 72 53 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 83 61 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 93 93 87 65 38 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 33 39 54 57 45 33 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 9 7 3 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 239 238 233 241 220 219 224 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.3 28.4 27.1 25.6 24.2 22.9 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 169 158 144 126 110 100 93 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.4 0.8 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 53 53 53 56 51 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 34 32 28 23 17 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 83 64 36 2 19 0 25 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 84 104 136 134 71 49 28 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 27 58 84 82 22 6 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 368 239 163 49 -78 -263 -488 -624 -527 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 27.2 28.5 29.9 31.2 33.1 35.1 37.0 38.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.0 87.6 87.5 87.4 87.8 87.4 85.0 81.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 11 9 12 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 31 9 2 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 4. -2. -10. -19. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -18. -25. -34. -36. -33. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 0. -4. -13. -23. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -7. -18. -37. -55. -69. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.8 88.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 60.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.14 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.68 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.61 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 0( 23) 0( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 90 83 61 38 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 81 59 36 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 57 34 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 58 35 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 48 40 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 64 56 54 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 IN 12HR 90 91 90 81 75 71 63 61 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33