* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/09/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 90 90 85 67 50 36 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 90 90 85 48 34 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 90 94 94 88 50 34 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 22 28 35 51 50 37 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 9 6 7 12 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 233 238 238 230 236 216 213 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.7 29.9 29.3 28.6 26.3 24.9 23.6 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 165 169 158 147 117 104 97 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 51 51 54 56 60 55 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 27 29 32 31 26 20 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 85 88 71 53 12 7 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 80 85 107 141 97 39 32 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 17 26 57 89 59 22 -9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 368 288 208 76 -184 -374 -601 -583 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.3 29.7 32.2 34.1 36.0 38.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.8 88.1 87.5 87.2 86.9 87.1 87.7 86.5 82.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 11 10 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 42 26 9 7 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -14. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -16. -25. -28. -27. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 6. 2. -4. -12. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. -0. -18. -35. -49. -59. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 24.8 88.8 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.54 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.23 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -68.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.58 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 31.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 18.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/09/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 10( 29) 0( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 90 90 85 48 34 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 86 86 81 44 30 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 76 39 25 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 53 39 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 90 81 75 71 57 52 51 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23