* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/08/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 82 86 89 90 81 70 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 77 82 86 89 90 65 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 78 84 87 90 91 67 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 18 20 29 38 49 47 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 5 6 4 8 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 247 237 229 235 229 237 228 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 29.7 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.5 27.3 25.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 164 155 159 166 162 129 108 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.4 2.2 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 57 53 55 56 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 23 22 24 28 27 24 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 46 55 68 83 51 -24 -18 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 62 92 95 69 75 107 136 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 5 12 31 69 77 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 264 276 310 383 366 178 -85 -352 -640 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.1 25.0 25.8 28.2 31.2 33.9 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.6 90.8 89.9 89.2 88.5 87.6 87.3 87.8 88.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 29 27 40 78 32 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -21. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 11. 9. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 16. 19. 20. 11. -0. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.1 91.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/08/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 13.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.89 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.61 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.40 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.81 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 39.3% 32.1% 28.8% 8.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.8% 25.0% 15.4% 3.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.1% 21.6% 16.0% 10.8% 3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 31.0% 30.0% 26.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 23.5% 25.8% 21.0% 13.4% 8.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/08/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/08/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 11( 21) 12( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 77 82 86 89 90 65 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 74 78 81 82 57 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 73 74 49 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 64 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT