* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/08/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 75 81 85 89 89 76 62 46 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 67 75 81 85 89 89 51 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 69 76 80 83 88 86 50 34 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 19 15 18 31 46 48 44 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 5 3 14 13 1 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 241 241 233 220 237 224 232 230 236 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.4 29.7 29.2 29.3 29.8 28.9 26.2 24.3 23.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 164 155 157 167 152 117 100 93 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 64 63 62 57 54 60 59 62 63 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 22 23 23 26 29 25 21 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 46 57 72 72 30 -29 -33 -39 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 82 64 95 93 56 91 92 91 94 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 4 20 55 68 97 31 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 252 249 308 363 283 108 -214 -504 -638 -581 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.4 24.1 24.8 26.8 29.4 32.5 35.2 36.9 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.3 91.5 90.6 89.8 89.0 87.8 86.9 87.1 87.0 85.4 82.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 15 14 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 44 29 27 15 27 11 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -18. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 4. 7. 11. 8. 1. -6. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 25. 29. 29. 16. 2. -14. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.7 92.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/08/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 4.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.96 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.50 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.72 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 47.2% 36.2% 34.7% 8.3% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 34.0% 23.2% 7.6% 1.9% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.9% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.2% 27.2% 19.9% 14.4% 3.4% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 32.0% 45.0% 32.0% 20.0% 11.0% 18.0% 12.0% 1.0% SDCON: 22.1% 36.1% 25.9% 17.2% 7.2% 12.0% 6.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/08/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/08/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 5( 5) 10( 15) 11( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 67 75 81 85 89 89 51 35 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 67 73 77 81 81 43 27 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 66 70 70 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 58 58 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT