* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/07/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 70 76 80 85 81 65 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 70 76 80 85 67 40 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 68 71 76 79 63 38 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 25 24 18 25 40 45 46 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 2 2 9 4 13 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 227 241 241 237 236 242 241 229 227 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.5 29.9 29.2 29.7 29.8 27.7 25.2 23.2 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 167 155 164 167 135 109 94 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.7 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 63 61 52 54 53 56 49 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 21 23 23 27 29 22 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 30 40 58 73 59 -1 -8 -72 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 74 83 74 89 62 76 113 125 62 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 -1 3 19 42 80 80 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 305 284 284 303 384 169 -39 -351 -673 -972 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.6 24.0 25.6 28.0 30.8 33.9 36.8 39.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 92.5 91.8 91.0 90.1 88.8 87.9 87.6 88.0 87.9 87.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 13 15 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 43 45 33 27 80 38 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -16. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 12. 14. 6. -4. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 35. 31. 15. -5. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.5 93.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.71 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.63 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.75 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.48 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 41.9% 29.2% 23.6% 7.3% 14.6% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 18.8% 29.2% 19.8% 6.9% 1.6% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.4% 1.0% 0.9% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.0% 24.0% 16.6% 10.9% 3.1% 6.1% 5.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 36.0% 38.0% 15.0% 13.0% 15.0% 15.0% 18.0% 1.0% SDCON: 24.5% 31.0% 15.8% 11.9% 9.0% 10.5% 11.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 7( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 63 70 76 80 85 67 40 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 55 62 68 72 77 59 32 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 53 59 63 68 50 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 50 55 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT