* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/07/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 57 66 71 73 61 45 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 57 66 71 73 46 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 54 57 57 39 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 17 24 22 19 29 45 48 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 2 6 7 14 9 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 232 227 235 246 232 246 242 243 231 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.1 29.2 29.9 29.1 26.2 23.6 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 171 171 155 168 155 119 98 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 67 63 57 52 56 54 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 17 21 23 25 28 23 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 30 32 37 52 65 74 26 -24 -61 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 52 67 83 71 80 68 75 121 89 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 7 30 78 86 46 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 354 326 273 237 237 347 303 124 -197 -606 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.8 23.2 24.6 26.4 29.1 32.5 36.2 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 93.3 92.6 91.7 90.8 89.3 88.4 87.8 88.3 88.1 87.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 10 12 15 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 39 46 43 33 13 82 24 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 14. 8. -1. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 31. 36. 38. 26. 10. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 93.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.49 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.81 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.5 -4.5 to -89.2 0.81 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 35.6% 18.6% 15.5% 6.5% 13.2% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 21.9% 35.3% 24.4% 9.8% 3.0% 5.9% 1.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.2% 1.7% 1.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.0% 24.2% 14.7% 9.2% 3.3% 6.5% 5.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 48.0% 17.0% 8.0% 5.0% 15.0% 13.0% 1.0% SDCON: 9.5% 36.1% 15.8% 8.6% 4.1% 10.7% 9.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 50 57 66 71 73 46 33 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 51 60 65 67 40 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 43 52 57 59 32 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 41 46 48 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT