* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092026 10/07/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 70 77 82 75 59 39 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 70 77 82 75 43 32 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 58 63 65 60 37 30 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 18 22 16 19 30 47 45 35 22 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 10 7 11 6 0 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 244 239 236 241 260 241 246 246 230 212 256 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.8 30.6 29.8 29.2 29.9 28.6 26.2 24.5 22.8 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 171 165 155 169 147 117 102 93 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -49.6 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 5 1 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 71 67 63 57 58 56 57 44 33 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 13 16 17 19 24 26 29 28 22 14 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 19 33 30 32 61 88 71 30 31 -16 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 50 67 74 88 87 75 73 112 98 53 -37 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 3 19 40 86 72 -5 15 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 291 356 305 249 209 235 349 239 26 -208 -475 -745 -778 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.3 22.5 23.4 24.7 27.1 30.0 32.6 35.0 37.4 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 93.8 93.1 92.4 91.6 90.0 88.8 88.1 88.0 88.3 88.4 87.1 84.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 14 13 13 12 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 33 49 40 40 32 7 29 4 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -10. -14. -15. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 16. 21. 21. 12. 0. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 35. 42. 47. 40. 24. 4. -4. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.8 94.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.84 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.77 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 31.5% 13.1% 11.8% 6.1% 13.6% 15.2% 14.6% Logistic: 7.5% 29.6% 15.6% 6.2% 2.5% 8.4% 3.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 21.3% 9.8% 6.3% 2.9% 7.4% 6.3% 5.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 54.0% 28.0% 14.0% 5.0% 42.0% 48.0% 3.0% SDCON: 5.8% 37.6% 18.9% 10.1% 3.9% 24.7% 27.1% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 ISAIAS 10/07/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 52 58 70 77 82 75 43 32 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 52 64 71 76 69 37 26 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 55 62 67 60 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 43 50 55 48 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT