* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092026 10/07/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 54 67 74 73 69 56 43 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 54 67 74 73 69 40 31 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 51 56 56 52 34 29 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 15 17 19 22 25 38 53 46 49 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 2 3 5 2 9 10 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 225 245 238 229 238 225 237 231 236 226 239 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 31.0 30.9 30.9 30.7 29.8 29.3 29.9 28.5 26.1 24.4 22.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 171 165 157 169 146 116 101 92 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.9 1.0 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 7 6 7 4 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 70 63 57 54 57 56 55 55 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 14 15 21 23 22 24 23 21 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 9 27 35 44 57 60 14 -54 -50 -61 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 50 38 50 81 91 90 60 75 95 94 43 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -2 0 3 15 23 26 96 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 201 278 354 343 290 267 386 242 19 -230 -486 -764 -857 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.5 25.0 27.0 30.1 32.8 35.1 37.6 40.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.4 94.7 94.0 93.2 92.4 90.8 89.1 88.3 88.1 88.3 88.5 87.5 85.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 9 10 13 14 13 12 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 46 41 43 43 32 35 50 4 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -7. -14. -19. -22. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 14. 17. 16. 13. 7. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 17. 14. 8. 3. -2. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 37. 44. 43. 39. 26. 13. 1. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.9 95.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092026 NINE 10/07/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.89 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 26.8% 13.0% 11.3% 6.1% 12.5% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 36.4% 23.3% 9.3% 3.1% 5.3% 2.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 21.8% 12.3% 7.1% 3.1% 6.0% 5.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 18.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% 3.0% SDCON: 3.0% 19.9% 7.6% 4.5% 1.5% 5.5% 6.6% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092026 NINE 10/07/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092026 NINE 10/07/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 47 54 67 74 73 69 40 31 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 48 61 68 67 63 34 25 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 39 52 59 58 54 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 40 47 46 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT