* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 10/06/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 57 58 59 49 37 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 57 58 59 49 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 47 47 45 40 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 19 19 19 25 24 28 45 54 45 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 0 0 4 1 4 -3 -1 3 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 219 229 246 245 243 261 259 251 253 247 258 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.4 29.2 29.9 29.3 27.0 24.7 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 170 170 170 155 168 158 126 105 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 8 7 7 7 6 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 72 70 68 61 60 65 67 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 11 13 17 17 20 18 16 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 -1 1 19 20 46 51 59 9 -8 -76 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 42 41 27 49 82 75 63 45 45 98 56 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 4 12 15 27 28 48 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 206 246 304 362 267 241 332 294 31 -137 -449 -807 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 7 7 7 10 11 13 15 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 59 51 43 38 41 40 24 108 26 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -0. -6. -14. -21. -25. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 11. 8. 4. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 27. 28. 29. 19. 7. -2. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.1 95.8 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 30.0 to 152.9 0.86 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 23.5% 12.7% 11.2% 5.8% 12.5% 13.8% 16.0% Logistic: 12.4% 33.6% 21.4% 6.8% 2.2% 6.0% 5.9% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.3% 4.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 20.4% 11.8% 6.4% 2.8% 6.3% 6.6% 5.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 10.0% SDCON: 3.6% 14.2% 6.9% 3.7% 1.4% 4.6% 4.8% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 10/06/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 44 50 57 58 59 49 35 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 46 53 54 55 45 31 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 40 47 48 49 39 25 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 37 38 39 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT