* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 10/06/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 33 37 46 48 49 46 40 39 35 34 34 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 33 37 46 48 49 46 40 39 35 34 34 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 34 32 29 25 22 20 19 20 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 18 22 20 20 26 30 36 36 37 22 15 3 7 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -4 -1 3 2 0 -5 -9 -9 0 0 3 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 204 200 209 228 246 249 271 275 286 290 320 337 19 69 22 108 132 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.7 30.5 30.0 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.6 30.8 30.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 167 167 168 169 169 168 167 163 166 169 170 171 171 166 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 7 5 8 6 8 5 7 6 8 6 9 7 12 8 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 75 75 75 77 76 78 75 74 72 70 68 66 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 8 8 11 12 18 18 18 18 16 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 5 6 14 30 56 74 72 55 54 53 -3 8 11 -12 9 200 MB DIV 44 46 41 54 43 62 71 102 113 62 43 37 10 -4 -12 0 -8 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 5 -5 3 -5 2 -1 LAND (KM) 144 135 139 135 141 167 160 157 125 112 133 127 161 281 246 74 -87 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.5 20.7 20.0 19.5 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.1 96.1 96.1 96.0 95.7 95.2 94.6 93.9 93.2 92.2 91.7 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 0 1 2 4 5 4 4 4 5 2 4 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 47 46 47 43 29 15 13 20 29 2 1 35 37 35 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 39. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -5. -13. -21. -25. -25. -25. -25. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 5. -1. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 21. 23. 24. 21. 15. 14. 10. 9. 9. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.0 96.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.80 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.4 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 16.9% 10.7% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 14.6% 7.1% 2.4% 0.8% 4.0% 6.2% 6.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% Consensus: 3.1% 11.2% 6.2% 4.2% 0.3% 1.4% 6.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.1% 3.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.7% 3.0% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 10/06/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 33 37 46 48 49 46 40 39 35 34 34 36 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 30 34 43 45 46 43 37 36 32 31 31 33 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 26 30 39 41 42 39 33 32 28 27 27 29 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 23 32 34 35 32 26 25 21 20 20 22 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT