* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 10/06/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 46 50 51 47 46 45 43 34 31 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 46 50 51 47 46 45 43 34 31 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 33 34 33 31 29 28 25 22 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 21 24 19 22 23 27 26 31 34 35 29 23 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -6 -3 1 5 2 -3 -2 -5 -6 -11 -7 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 196 203 205 214 222 245 248 276 284 301 307 328 358 25 25 39 54 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.9 30.5 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.5 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 166 167 168 169 169 170 169 168 164 166 170 171 171 168 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 6 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 7 9 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 74 74 73 73 73 75 76 73 70 73 69 71 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 6 7 10 11 17 18 20 19 19 19 20 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 27 15 3 5 -1 7 31 60 81 67 61 66 -1 -11 15 21 29 200 MB DIV 36 38 37 42 57 45 71 80 87 44 41 17 -15 -29 -8 1 10 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 6 3 0 -2 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 173 177 170 169 179 196 234 254 196 97 42 51 90 105 145 33 -124 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.5 22.0 21.1 20.2 19.5 19.1 19.3 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.0 96.1 96.1 96.0 95.7 95.1 94.4 93.6 92.7 91.9 91.6 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 3 5 5 6 5 3 2 2 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 56 58 55 56 59 61 50 32 20 29 9 6 2 37 13 22 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -8. -15. -20. -24. -29. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 8. 11. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 21. 25. 26. 22. 21. 20. 18. 9. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.4 95.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 58.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.82 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -32.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 15.7% 10.3% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 16.2% 8.7% 3.6% 1.2% 3.2% 3.9% 6.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 2.5% 11.0% 6.5% 4.3% 0.5% 1.1% 5.4% 2.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.2% 6.5% 3.7% 2.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 10/06/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 46 50 51 47 46 45 43 34 31 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 37 44 48 49 45 44 43 41 32 29 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 33 40 44 45 41 40 39 37 28 25 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 33 37 38 34 33 32 30 21 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT