* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 10/06/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 46 53 61 62 73 62 51 41 30 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 46 53 61 62 53 38 33 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 44 38 31 30 24 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 18 21 19 18 25 26 27 20 32 26 28 32 38 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -5 -6 -5 0 4 1 0 -2 1 -7 -10 -9 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 174 185 195 204 211 236 252 275 278 298 322 328 326 333 310 321 322 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.5 29.7 30.0 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.6 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 166 165 168 169 170 171 163 167 160 168 169 161 170 166 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 8 5 9 6 9 7 9 7 6 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 76 75 74 72 74 72 72 67 68 68 66 62 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 9 8 12 15 20 25 27 35 28 21 16 10 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 19 12 12 12 39 65 88 91 55 25 -11 -53 -72 -111 -97 200 MB DIV 46 40 38 44 56 53 70 76 66 23 12 9 -4 -40 -50 -35 -14 700-850 TADV 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 2 4 13 12 5 LAND (KM) 150 154 140 128 128 152 177 235 205 73 -28 -53 80 228 421 290 213 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.6 22.1 21.2 20.4 19.8 20.0 20.7 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.2 96.4 96.5 96.5 96.3 95.7 94.7 93.2 91.4 90.2 89.9 89.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 3 5 7 9 8 4 5 7 8 9 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 48 48 48 49 52 34 28 4 7 7 6 26 68 33 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 37. 37. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -23. -26. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 24. 35. 24. 13. 4. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 21. 28. 36. 37. 48. 37. 26. 16. 5. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.3 96.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.91 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.82 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -22.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 16.8% 11.1% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 22.8% 13.0% 6.0% 2.2% 5.8% 4.8% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.2% Consensus: 2.4% 13.6% 8.1% 5.2% 0.7% 2.0% 5.8% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% SDCON: 1.2% 7.8% 4.5% 2.6% 0.3% 1.0% 2.9% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 10/06/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 10/06/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 39 46 53 61 62 53 38 33 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 37 44 51 59 60 51 36 31 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 40 47 55 56 47 32 27 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 38 46 47 38 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT