* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 10/05/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 45 53 60 60 59 58 61 52 38 24 17 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 21 21 19 18 22 28 31 35 35 39 37 49 54 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 1 1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 1 -5 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 174 165 172 189 197 224 259 265 272 258 254 239 229 239 256 261 276 SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 169 165 163 158 161 161 162 162 161 161 160 156 150 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 6 5 9 5 9 6 9 6 9 6 8 3 7 2 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 79 79 78 78 76 77 77 78 74 69 66 62 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 8 11 16 20 22 24 25 29 27 20 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 46 35 32 36 36 33 45 80 120 93 92 95 83 70 31 -14 -41 200 MB DIV 28 26 39 38 37 66 54 19 28 34 46 43 74 98 52 30 58 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 6 2 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 7 6 9 22 30 LAND (KM) 97 71 29 -20 -61 -113 -145 -190 -228 -271 -291 -305 -373 -374 -318 -205 -118 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.5 20.6 19.9 19.8 20.0 20.5 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.9 97.5 98.0 98.4 98.9 99.0 99.1 99.2 99.6 100.2 100.8 101.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 5 4 4 2 4 4 2 2 4 4 6 9 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 31 25 24 22 20 17 16 16 17 19 20 22 20 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 29. 34. 37. 39. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -16. -21. -26. -32. -38. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 19. 22. 23. 27. 22. 12. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 20. 28. 35. 35. 34. 33. 36. 27. 13. -1. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.0 96.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 10/05/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.90 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.79 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.5 -4.5 to -89.2 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 17.2% 11.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 31.0% 17.2% 11.4% 6.4% 22.2% 15.5% 19.8% Bayesian: 2.0% 9.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.7% 37.7% Consensus: 4.3% 19.1% 9.9% 7.5% 2.2% 7.8% 9.6% 19.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 10/05/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 10/05/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT