* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL022026 07/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 48 48 45 39 30 26 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 48 48 38 35 26 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 50 48 37 35 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 28 21 13 23 28 25 26 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 9 10 7 -2 1 -1 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 33 40 51 48 5 31 35 51 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.4 28.5 27.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 169 169 170 170 170 170 143 125 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 7 6 9 6 9 8 12 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 45 46 43 43 39 42 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 16 16 15 12 5 3 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -38 -42 -17 2 -59 -51 -93 -40 -43 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 8 12 -17 -13 5 -61 -26 -14 22 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -7 -17 -14 -10 -8 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 98 75 75 44 -23 17 -10 -162 -273 -366 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.7 30.4 30.9 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.8 87.2 87.6 88.3 88.9 90.6 92.4 94.2 95.9 97.2 98.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 3 2 3 5 5 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -19. -24. -25. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -11. -20. -24. -25. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.3 86.8 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.22 0.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.71 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.53 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -11.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.08 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.2% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 50 48 48 38 35 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 46 36 33 24 24 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 44 34 31 22 22 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 30 27 18 18 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT