* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL022026 07/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 51 48 43 36 30 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 51 43 41 35 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 56 54 49 42 35 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 24 28 21 13 28 24 25 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 6 6 11 10 2 -3 2 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 36 29 36 46 12 17 43 43 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.0 28.5 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 169 169 170 170 171 168 141 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 7 6 9 4 11 8 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 44 44 45 42 43 43 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 17 17 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -33 -33 -36 -15 -17 -53 -48 -79 -49 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -17 -3 19 -16 -36 -44 -37 0 3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 -13 -14 -32 -12 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 134 147 127 98 70 -1 13 21 -65 -159 -216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.7 87.1 87.5 87.9 89.4 91.3 92.9 95.1 96.2 96.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 7 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 25 22 8 4 4 4 4 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -14. -21. -23. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -14. -20. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.8 86.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.15 0.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.71 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.50 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -15.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 53 51 43 41 35 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 48 40 38 32 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 44 36 34 28 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 30 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT