* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL022026 07/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 47 42 38 33 24 19 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 47 42 38 34 25 19 17 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 52 51 45 40 35 30 26 24 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 24 27 29 16 22 30 31 32 31 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 5 5 9 6 -3 0 0 5 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 25 38 31 37 34 8 33 48 71 57 63 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.5 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.4 30.0 29.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 169 169 169 170 170 169 167 157 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 7 10 6 9 8 13 11 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 48 43 46 42 42 37 40 42 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 15 13 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -63 -28 -28 -46 -4 -68 -50 -112 -58 -58 -18 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -28 -15 8 10 -21 -15 -55 -30 -26 2 -9 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 -7 -14 -15 -16 -21 -22 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 155 165 174 153 131 46 14 16 61 57 -3 -60 -135 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.5 86.9 87.2 87.5 88.6 90.0 91.2 92.8 94.0 95.0 96.1 97.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 28 30 25 22 2 6 4 5 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -23. -28. -30. -30. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -7. -12. -21. -26. -28. -28. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.5 86.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.15 0.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.58 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.53 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.9 -4.5 to -89.2 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 3.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022026 BERTHA 07/21/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 48 47 42 38 34 25 19 17 22 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 44 39 35 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 35 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT