* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022026 07/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 30 32 27 25 19 18 22 24 25 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 30 32 27 25 20 20 23 23 26 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 22 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 18 19 31 32 35 25 20 23 14 17 14 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 3 2 1 3 -3 5 6 14 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 36 43 49 49 40 42 55 67 55 79 84 90 33 49 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.5 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.3 27.6 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 167 168 169 169 170 170 171 170 156 131 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 10 8 10 8 10 6 10 6 10 8 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 57 59 53 51 46 47 41 44 39 43 42 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 7 6 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -53 -50 -38 -72 -61 -67 -41 -91 -66 -100 -30 -7 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 13 -4 -22 -15 -32 -14 -3 -23 -24 -39 -38 -5 -25 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -4 2 -1 7 2 -11 -19 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 215 223 212 195 181 153 161 142 36 5 83 76 -57 -191 -374 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.1 85.2 85.4 85.6 85.8 86.5 87.5 88.7 90.3 92.2 94.0 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 24 23 20 14 28 24 2 7 7 2 2 4 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 25. 24. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -13. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 2. 0. -6. -7. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.5 85.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022026 TWO 07/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 30.0 to 152.9 0.71 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -27.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 13.0% 9.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 17.1% 10.0% 4.5% 2.8% 6.7% 4.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 10.7% 6.4% 4.3% 0.9% 2.2% 3.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 5.8% 3.2% 2.1% 0.4% 1.1% 1.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022026 TWO 07/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022026 TWO 07/19/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 29 30 32 27 25 20 20 23 23 26 26 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 28 30 25 23 18 18 21 21 24 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 25 27 22 20 15 15 18 18 21 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT