* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/22/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 37 43 50 55 61 65 67 70 68 68 68 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 37 43 50 55 61 65 67 70 68 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 28 29 32 37 42 48 52 54 53 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 27 28 22 16 6 4 7 9 10 15 27 27 28 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 -3 -3 0 -1 1 0 0 0 5 3 -4 -6 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 109 113 116 120 131 142 158 288 343 285 320 279 296 291 299 292 298 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 149 149 148 152 152 162 166 162 160 165 163 163 162 168 171 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 10 13 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 51 51 55 48 50 50 49 56 60 63 66 69 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 21 12 11 7 11 17 22 33 49 50 59 77 70 53 39 200 MB DIV 22 3 -2 -21 -34 -4 3 31 33 41 48 62 29 61 77 77 26 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -10 -6 -4 -6 -6 -6 -3 -3 0 3 3 6 -1 13 4 LAND (KM) 1244 1105 1010 943 893 819 609 276 76 209 262 180 182 350 304 298 85 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.3 44.7 46.2 47.7 50.8 53.8 56.9 60.1 63.2 66.3 69.0 71.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 15 15 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 32 34 35 40 48 56 53 42 40 52 52 56 69 66 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 34. 39. 44. 48. 51. 53. 56. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 31. 36. 37. 40. 38. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 41.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.71 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 10.3% 6.8% 5.4% 4.3% 8.1% 9.3% 19.5% Logistic: 1.3% 3.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1.5% 3.0% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 4.8% 2.9% 2.0% 1.6% 3.2% 4.1% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.4% 2.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/22/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 29 30 32 37 43 50 55 61 65 67 70 68 68 68 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 29 31 36 42 49 54 60 64 66 69 67 67 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 29 34 40 47 52 58 62 64 67 65 65 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 28 34 41 46 52 56 58 61 59 59 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT