* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/22/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 33 37 43 49 54 59 66 68 70 70 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 33 37 43 49 54 59 66 68 70 70 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 28 31 35 39 45 50 52 53 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 23 28 30 20 11 3 7 8 13 11 25 24 26 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 4 -2 -5 -1 -1 2 0 -1 0 3 0 -5 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 92 101 112 119 121 143 152 238 328 306 308 280 282 287 292 290 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.0 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 147 149 151 150 157 166 166 154 164 164 165 167 164 165 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 11 9 11 10 12 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 52 52 50 48 49 49 49 54 59 62 65 68 70 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 27 25 20 16 8 24 18 31 40 59 66 80 89 70 51 200 MB DIV 26 21 11 5 -32 -17 -21 6 23 21 43 50 47 43 77 91 70 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -9 -7 -3 -6 -7 -3 -2 -2 2 1 4 2 6 11 LAND (KM) 1387 1250 1136 1041 967 861 784 460 145 113 181 177 111 196 325 430 181 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.2 12.2 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.7 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.7 43.1 44.6 46.1 49.1 52.2 55.2 58.4 61.6 64.8 67.8 70.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 16 14 16 16 16 16 14 14 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 28 31 33 35 44 50 56 43 29 42 41 39 51 60 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 34. 39. 44. 48. 52. 54. 57. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 29. 36. 38. 40. 40. 41. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 40.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.31 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.71 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.0% 6.5% 5.1% 4.0% 7.5% 8.3% 18.1% Logistic: 1.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 1.4% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.3% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% 2.7% 3.3% 7.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/22/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 30 33 37 43 49 54 59 66 68 70 70 71 71 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 32 36 42 48 53 58 65 67 69 69 70 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 29 33 39 45 50 55 62 64 66 66 67 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 27 33 39 44 49 56 58 60 60 61 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT