* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/22/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 34 37 42 48 53 58 63 66 67 68 69 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 34 37 42 48 53 58 63 66 67 68 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 30 32 35 39 44 48 51 53 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 20 24 24 18 5 6 5 9 13 18 24 26 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 9 7 1 -1 -4 0 -2 5 -1 2 0 0 -6 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 98 96 106 113 121 134 148 166 273 326 267 310 268 289 274 283 280 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 143 146 143 146 144 150 152 162 166 166 158 163 161 168 167 167 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 10 12 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 53 53 49 52 47 48 51 51 58 60 62 67 65 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 38 34 29 21 16 22 27 31 43 58 61 62 86 85 70 200 MB DIV 56 31 19 8 3 -36 -7 4 15 22 25 63 47 13 57 63 57 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -8 -9 -9 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 0 2 2 4 5 3 9 LAND (KM) 1483 1437 1307 1187 1096 965 871 651 320 83 151 202 155 118 235 370 349 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.3 12.2 12.9 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.1 12.4 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.9 41.4 42.9 44.4 47.4 50.5 53.4 56.5 59.6 62.7 65.8 68.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 26 29 34 39 47 54 53 39 31 44 44 44 57 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 26. 33. 39. 44. 47. 51. 53. 57. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 38.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 13.0% 8.7% 6.6% 5.1% 8.5% 8.6% 18.0% Logistic: 3.5% 9.4% 6.0% 3.1% 2.5% 3.2% 2.0% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 7.8% 5.0% 3.2% 2.6% 3.9% 3.6% 7.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 4.4% 3.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/22/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 32 34 37 42 48 53 58 63 66 67 68 69 69 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 32 35 40 46 51 56 61 64 65 66 67 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 28 31 36 42 47 52 57 60 61 62 63 63 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 25 30 36 41 46 51 54 55 56 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT