* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/22/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 45 51 54 59 65 69 73 73 73 72 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 45 51 54 59 62 66 70 70 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 33 35 38 43 41 50 55 59 61 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 18 21 28 20 10 1 7 7 13 11 18 20 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 7 5 -5 -4 -2 10 8 4 -1 0 1 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 93 89 97 99 118 134 138 179 335 295 310 305 291 291 286 292 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.6 29.8 29.8 28.7 29.3 29.7 29.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 145 148 145 150 147 151 153 164 167 167 148 158 165 160 171 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 58 55 51 51 50 50 51 54 58 60 65 67 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 42 41 37 31 26 18 25 21 36 32 43 31 55 70 66 200 MB DIV 86 67 40 30 20 -25 -28 0 14 -2 10 36 58 37 34 61 54 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 -5 -7 -6 -3 -5 -3 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 1485 1435 1383 1257 1156 984 873 781 646 396 210 9 65 132 91 115 336 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.3 11.0 11.9 12.2 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.7 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 38.7 40.1 41.5 42.8 45.6 48.4 51.0 53.6 56.3 59.0 61.8 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 24 26 27 33 35 40 48 51 50 31 18 30 42 42 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 34. 40. 45. 49. 52. 54. 58. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -21. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 15. 21. 24. 29. 35. 39. 43. 43. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 37.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 14.3% 9.5% 6.9% 5.3% 9.2% 9.3% 18.0% Logistic: 6.9% 16.6% 11.0% 5.7% 4.3% 4.2% 2.3% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 11.9% 7.3% 4.2% 3.3% 4.5% 4.0% 7.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/22/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/22/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 45 51 54 59 62 66 70 70 70 69 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 34 36 42 48 51 56 59 63 67 67 67 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 32 38 44 47 52 55 59 63 63 63 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 25 31 37 40 45 48 52 56 56 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT