* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/21/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 34 36 37 42 49 51 53 59 64 68 70 71 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 34 36 37 42 49 51 53 59 51 50 51 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 33 36 40 43 38 39 43 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 19 24 22 24 22 12 4 7 10 13 11 13 21 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 2 5 -1 -7 -6 8 12 12 -2 4 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 88 92 88 97 104 114 127 140 113 292 308 296 323 285 299 283 296 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.1 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 136 142 147 144 148 151 156 160 165 173 173 147 155 155 167 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 8 12 9 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 62 59 55 49 52 49 51 52 55 56 62 64 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 42 39 43 40 35 25 19 20 16 27 22 36 40 40 69 67 200 MB DIV 66 73 57 34 29 -10 -38 -1 20 -15 0 41 43 55 43 60 76 700-850 TADV -2 0 -4 -3 -4 -9 -4 -6 -6 -1 0 -1 -1 2 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1558 1482 1432 1416 1339 1133 976 824 690 539 345 115 -27 48 43 51 211 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.3 11.7 11.5 10.7 10.1 9.7 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.8 38.1 39.4 40.7 43.3 46.1 48.9 51.5 54.1 56.9 59.8 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 14 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 22 23 24 27 33 35 42 49 50 45 24 17 31 30 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 34. 40. 45. 50. 53. 55. 59. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -15. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 12. 19. 21. 23. 29. 34. 38. 40. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 35.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/21/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 14.3% 9.4% 6.7% 5.2% 9.0% 9.4% 18.2% Logistic: 4.5% 12.8% 7.7% 2.6% 1.8% 2.2% 1.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 9.7% 5.9% 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 3.9% 7.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 5.3% 3.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992025 INVEST 08/21/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/21/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 33 34 36 37 42 49 51 53 59 51 50 51 53 52 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 33 34 39 46 48 50 56 48 47 48 50 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 29 30 35 42 44 46 52 44 43 44 46 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 24 29 36 38 40 46 38 37 38 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT