* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 34 35 38 44 50 54 60 67 72 73 76 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 34 35 38 44 50 54 60 62 67 68 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 30 30 30 31 34 38 42 39 47 50 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 15 20 23 20 21 16 7 2 9 12 15 11 20 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 4 1 1 4 -3 -2 -3 7 7 0 -3 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 110 107 108 111 119 136 137 157 157 148 274 271 300 289 275 285 282 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 137 137 143 146 149 155 160 166 171 160 155 155 160 167 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 64 62 57 54 51 50 51 53 56 58 60 64 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 50 49 50 47 34 24 23 25 25 30 33 49 58 69 77 200 MB DIV 54 43 58 34 21 -5 -53 -26 -1 -6 4 27 45 65 83 66 77 700-850 TADV 4 3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 2 1 -1 7 LAND (KM) 1729 1668 1598 1552 1531 1279 1054 894 764 620 363 112 0 86 57 48 258 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.1 11.7 11.0 10.7 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.7 36.1 37.5 39.0 42.0 45.2 48.2 51.2 53.9 56.9 59.9 62.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 14 15 14 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 22 22 23 30 34 41 48 52 45 21 21 34 32 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 26. 33. 39. 44. 48. 52. 54. 58. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 30. 37. 42. 43. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 33.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 14.9% 9.9% 7.2% 5.6% 9.2% 9.4% 17.7% Logistic: 4.6% 9.3% 7.2% 2.0% 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.4% 6.1% 3.1% 2.1% 3.6% 3.4% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.2% 3.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/21/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 33 33 34 35 38 44 50 54 60 62 67 68 71 71 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 31 32 35 41 47 51 57 59 64 65 68 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 28 31 37 43 47 53 55 60 61 64 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 25 31 37 41 47 49 54 55 58 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT