* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/21/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 36 37 39 45 50 55 58 63 69 71 73 72 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 36 37 39 45 50 55 58 63 69 41 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 31 31 30 29 30 33 37 42 45 47 33 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 21 20 25 25 22 22 11 8 7 12 14 17 16 23 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 1 2 0 1 -2 -8 -3 9 13 14 2 2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 114 96 102 104 103 126 127 127 123 72 356 324 301 322 292 299 283 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.6 30.0 29.5 29.8 30.0 28.6 29.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 138 136 136 142 142 148 156 163 171 161 167 171 147 157 168 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 7 8 8 10 8 11 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 66 65 60 55 46 51 50 53 55 58 60 63 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 52 53 50 50 52 44 25 21 18 20 22 14 25 23 22 49 200 MB DIV 61 44 44 57 44 8 -6 -36 -19 -9 -56 -15 38 42 60 57 75 700-850 TADV 9 4 3 0 -2 -6 -11 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1665 1700 1618 1545 1491 1426 1184 991 815 638 459 351 150 1 -51 63 106 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.1 10.7 9.8 9.1 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.7 34.9 36.1 37.3 39.9 42.7 45.5 48.2 50.6 52.9 55.5 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 19 21 22 26 32 35 40 50 43 47 45 11 22 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 26. 34. 40. 45. 49. 54. 56. 60. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -18. -19. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 33. 39. 41. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 32.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/21/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 14.4% 9.6% 6.9% 5.3% 9.0% 8.8% 16.6% Logistic: 6.8% 13.6% 10.3% 4.1% 2.1% 2.5% 1.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 10.5% 7.1% 3.7% 2.5% 3.9% 3.6% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 5.7% 3.5% 1.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.8% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/21/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 35 36 37 39 45 50 55 58 63 69 41 44 44 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 32 33 34 36 42 47 52 55 60 66 38 41 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 29 31 37 42 47 50 55 61 33 36 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 24 30 35 40 43 48 54 26 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT