* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/20/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 38 39 40 42 43 44 50 56 60 60 63 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 38 39 40 42 43 44 50 56 60 42 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 31 30 29 30 32 34 36 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 20 28 30 30 37 28 24 17 19 3 17 26 25 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 0 -4 -5 -1 -4 -3 0 5 12 26 9 -2 0 3 7 SHEAR DIR 84 70 65 84 85 98 126 136 132 93 78 7 301 305 335 324 329 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.3 30.2 29.2 28.7 28.7 29.8 30.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 137 137 137 139 141 148 156 158 172 156 148 149 168 172 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 7 11 6 11 700-500 MB RH 62 65 66 65 64 65 57 53 46 53 52 56 57 59 63 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 23 25 35 43 47 45 31 6 9 -6 5 0 5 4 -14 8 200 MB DIV 65 72 52 11 33 36 36 -5 -41 0 -34 -57 -18 15 44 103 93 700-850 TADV 10 7 2 4 -2 -5 -1 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1442 1607 1650 1550 1472 1368 1328 1293 1048 823 602 347 118 23 -53 -199 -240 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.3 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.4 8.7 7.6 6.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.4 31.8 32.9 33.9 34.7 36.3 38.4 40.8 43.5 46.0 48.3 50.6 53.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 12 10 8 9 11 13 13 12 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 19 20 21 24 26 27 31 35 41 49 32 39 8 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 27. 35. 41. 47. 51. 55. 58. 63. 65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -20. -27. -32. -32. -32. -35. -39. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 20. 26. 30. 30. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 30.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/20/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 15.1% 10.2% 7.5% 5.7% 9.3% 8.0% 12.3% Logistic: 10.8% 23.9% 14.1% 6.1% 6.4% 5.1% 4.2% 4.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 15.8% 3.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 18.3% 9.3% 4.8% 4.2% 4.8% 4.1% 5.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 9.6% 4.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.0% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/20/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 38 38 39 40 42 43 44 50 56 60 42 32 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 34 35 36 38 39 40 46 52 56 38 28 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 30 31 33 34 35 41 47 51 33 23 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 27 33 39 43 25 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT