* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/20/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 42 43 43 45 44 43 46 53 57 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 42 43 43 45 44 43 46 53 57 57 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 33 30 28 28 29 31 32 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 19 26 30 39 48 37 26 23 22 19 11 19 29 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 -5 -6 -4 -13 -8 -3 0 13 19 12 0 -10 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 66 54 64 70 100 120 122 109 83 64 65 316 292 317 318 316 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.8 30.3 29.9 29.5 28.9 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 132 133 135 140 145 147 152 160 166 172 168 161 152 166 174 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -54.5 -54.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 64 63 65 60 54 49 51 58 60 62 60 61 58 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 14 22 34 44 46 31 12 1 -5 2 -24 -7 -28 -31 -28 200 MB DIV 47 45 56 37 12 47 21 30 5 17 14 -27 -55 -3 34 62 92 700-850 TADV 7 5 3 0 -2 3 0 -4 -5 -5 -2 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1303 1482 1628 1597 1506 1383 1310 1302 1257 1049 837 620 401 249 132 195 94 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 10.8 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.0 8.4 7.4 6.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.1 30.6 31.8 32.8 33.6 35.1 36.8 38.7 41.0 43.1 45.0 46.7 48.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 12 10 9 8 9 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 14 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 19 20 22 25 27 28 30 35 38 45 54 46 33 37 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 27. 35. 41. 47. 51. 56. 58. 63. 65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -19. -26. -36. -42. -45. -43. -44. -48. -54. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 13. 15. 14. 13. 16. 23. 27. 27. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 29.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/20/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 14.9% 10.1% 7.5% 5.8% 9.1% 7.5% 11.5% Logistic: 13.7% 23.4% 14.6% 6.6% 6.5% 4.8% 3.3% 3.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 16.4% 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 18.2% 9.3% 4.9% 4.2% 4.7% 3.6% 4.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 9.6% 5.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 2.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/20/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 39 42 43 43 45 44 43 46 53 57 57 57 57 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 38 39 39 41 40 39 42 49 53 53 53 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 34 34 36 35 34 37 44 48 48 48 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 25 25 27 26 25 28 35 39 39 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT