* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/20/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 42 43 45 44 46 51 59 68 74 76 80 82 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 42 43 45 44 46 51 59 68 74 76 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 35 33 32 32 36 42 50 57 63 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 22 33 36 26 19 10 5 4 5 16 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 9 6 -1 -11 -10 -2 -2 -4 4 12 13 0 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 102 112 124 113 91 111 126 136 130 132 123 80 26 312 284 308 282 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.3 29.8 29.7 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 138 139 140 145 149 158 167 164 171 167 169 170 169 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 63 66 64 67 61 56 47 49 52 51 55 58 61 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 10 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 37 33 28 27 41 45 43 40 20 20 23 26 25 20 21 3 200 MB DIV 36 60 72 53 41 28 33 17 -21 -21 1 3 -18 -28 37 51 76 700-850 TADV 11 11 12 16 10 8 5 -1 -6 0 -4 -1 1 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1021 1192 1357 1525 1685 1649 1512 1369 1112 917 757 626 495 397 285 192 12 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.1 12.7 12.2 11.3 10.6 10.3 10.3 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.9 28.5 30.0 31.5 32.9 35.5 37.9 40.5 43.3 46.2 48.8 51.2 53.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 16 17 18 22 23 28 34 35 42 49 46 46 48 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 376 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 26. 33. 39. 44. 48. 52. 55. 59. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -6. -12. -18. -22. -21. -19. -18. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 16. 21. 29. 38. 44. 46. 50. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 26.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/20/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 14.3% 9.3% 6.5% 5.1% 9.3% 9.9% 15.6% Logistic: 5.6% 11.1% 8.0% 2.5% 0.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 8.9% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.2% 3.9% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 5.4% 3.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/20/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 38 42 43 45 44 46 51 59 68 74 76 80 82 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 39 40 42 41 43 48 56 65 71 73 77 79 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 34 35 37 36 38 43 51 60 66 68 72 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 26 28 27 29 34 42 51 57 59 63 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT