* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/20/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 41 45 48 48 48 47 48 55 60 66 69 73 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 41 45 48 48 48 47 48 55 60 66 69 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 37 36 35 34 35 38 41 46 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 18 26 33 29 27 19 14 20 9 5 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 9 9 8 1 -1 -9 -3 -8 -4 6 14 16 14 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 94 102 109 117 105 99 103 122 127 125 129 76 71 57 310 323 317 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.0 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 29.8 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 138 138 140 137 144 144 152 159 166 169 171 171 166 172 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 63 63 67 67 64 57 48 45 48 52 57 56 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 29 31 31 46 51 53 44 29 17 16 23 22 11 -6 -10 200 MB DIV 31 36 60 73 65 30 55 35 14 -30 5 -8 -25 -28 -4 33 51 700-850 TADV 9 9 11 12 14 10 4 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 870 1051 1225 1380 1542 1703 1531 1416 1318 1103 932 767 598 422 332 301 295 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.4 11.3 10.4 9.8 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.5 27.2 28.8 30.2 31.6 34.1 36.2 38.4 40.7 43.1 45.3 47.4 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 14 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 13 17 17 19 22 25 29 33 35 40 48 48 43 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 407 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 19. 25. 33. 39. 44. 47. 52. 55. 59. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -10. -17. -23. -24. -25. -25. -24. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 18. 18. 17. 18. 25. 30. 36. 39. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 25.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/20/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 13.8% 9.1% 6.6% 5.1% 9.4% 9.7% 15.4% Logistic: 5.3% 11.5% 7.6% 3.3% 1.4% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 8.9% 6.2% 3.3% 2.2% 4.5% 4.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 5.9% 3.6% 1.6% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/20/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 39 41 45 48 48 48 47 48 55 60 66 69 73 76 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 38 42 45 45 45 44 45 52 57 63 66 70 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 38 38 38 37 38 45 50 56 59 63 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 29 29 29 28 29 36 41 47 50 54 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT