* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/19/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 54 55 53 52 55 62 66 69 73 77 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 54 55 53 52 55 62 66 69 73 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 37 39 41 43 42 40 40 42 44 47 52 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 8 8 8 14 30 32 24 21 16 17 10 9 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 14 13 14 9 2 -7 -7 -1 -1 1 9 9 9 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 95 105 107 113 93 103 129 131 127 133 95 80 62 26 321 325 SST (C) 27.6 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.2 29.2 29.4 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 141 141 140 140 138 141 139 142 140 155 159 167 171 171 170 170 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 61 63 64 64 59 54 47 54 57 60 63 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 11 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 26 39 37 36 50 51 47 39 21 16 19 33 13 6 0 200 MB DIV 60 36 54 67 77 61 39 20 0 -5 -9 9 9 0 -18 4 20 700-850 TADV 4 7 10 10 12 9 2 6 -2 -2 -3 -6 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 624 788 949 1101 1266 1589 1755 1594 1476 1240 1049 875 704 527 394 346 386 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 13.9 13.7 13.4 12.7 12.0 11.2 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.3 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.2 24.8 26.3 27.7 29.2 32.1 34.6 37.1 39.6 42.0 44.3 46.3 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 15 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 10 11 11 16 16 21 21 24 30 34 36 44 50 48 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 31. 37. 42. 45. 50. 52. 57. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -3. -9. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 23. 22. 25. 32. 36. 39. 43. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 23.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/19/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 14.8% 9.8% 7.1% 5.5% 9.6% 9.9% 15.3% Logistic: 6.7% 15.8% 12.1% 8.1% 3.3% 3.8% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 10.6% 7.6% 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% 4.1% 5.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.7% 7.8% 4.8% 3.0% 1.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/19/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 54 55 53 52 55 62 66 69 73 77 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 45 48 50 51 49 48 51 58 62 65 69 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 42 44 45 43 42 45 52 56 59 63 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 32 34 35 33 32 35 42 46 49 53 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT