* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/19/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 41 45 47 53 56 56 55 58 64 69 74 77 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 41 45 47 53 56 56 55 58 64 69 74 77 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 36 38 41 44 46 46 45 45 47 51 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 13 9 5 7 10 12 17 27 22 13 16 17 16 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 12 18 16 4 0 0 -4 2 6 5 3 -1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 67 69 84 89 79 80 89 130 127 141 148 129 75 74 72 73 28 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 135 137 137 135 136 142 140 143 150 147 152 161 168 169 168 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 61 61 61 64 64 59 57 51 49 55 59 63 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 12 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 5 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 17 11 19 46 39 44 45 44 50 37 16 11 14 6 -7 -37 200 MB DIV 73 62 25 25 62 64 39 37 -11 -3 -29 -30 0 39 5 -62 -31 700-850 TADV -3 2 9 10 10 10 4 6 1 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 475 632 776 927 1082 1380 1649 1678 1563 1517 1329 1186 1034 901 771 694 619 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.5 11.9 11.3 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.6 23.2 24.6 26.0 27.4 30.1 32.5 34.7 37.0 39.2 41.3 43.0 44.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 14 11 12 11 11 9 7 7 7 6 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 12 12 14 18 17 20 21 22 25 30 33 35 36 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 31. 36. 41. 44. 47. 50. 55. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. -3. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 23. 26. 26. 25. 28. 34. 39. 44. 47. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 21.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/19/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 14.1% 9.4% 6.9% 5.3% 9.1% 9.3% 16.6% Logistic: 5.4% 11.6% 6.3% 2.7% 1.8% 3.9% 1.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 2.9% 10.7% 5.9% 3.2% 2.4% 4.6% 4.0% 5.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 6.8% 3.4% 1.6% 1.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/19/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 41 45 47 53 56 56 55 58 64 69 74 77 83 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 38 42 44 50 53 53 52 55 61 66 71 74 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 36 38 44 47 47 46 49 55 60 65 68 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 30 36 39 39 38 41 47 52 57 60 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT