* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL992025 08/19/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 52 56 60 63 61 60 59 62 67 72 76 80 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 52 56 60 63 61 60 59 62 67 72 76 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 48 52 55 55 53 51 51 54 59 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 18 15 12 7 10 11 15 22 25 28 18 13 10 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 6 10 14 8 1 2 -1 -2 -8 0 9 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 68 63 65 69 63 59 66 122 133 133 140 143 118 83 56 62 52 SST (C) 27.2 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 132 129 130 136 135 134 134 137 132 133 137 140 143 148 149 154 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 60 58 61 61 64 61 59 57 48 51 54 60 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 7 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 16 12 22 45 36 46 39 43 46 28 19 4 4 -14 -21 200 MB DIV 67 68 63 28 40 66 40 36 22 -5 -4 -51 5 26 29 -14 -34 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 4 7 8 5 1 5 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 358 500 623 751 879 1137 1385 1599 1802 1751 1709 1555 1400 1244 1101 993 914 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.1 21.6 22.9 24.2 25.4 27.8 30.1 32.1 34.2 36.4 38.4 40.3 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 12 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 11 12 13 14 17 16 17 19 18 20 23 28 33 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. 46. 49. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. -0. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 26. 30. 33. 31. 30. 29. 32. 37. 42. 46. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 20.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992025 INVEST 08/19/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 13.8% 9.4% 7.1% 5.2% 9.1% 8.9% 15.4% Logistic: 7.9% 15.6% 7.7% 5.0% 4.8% 7.0% 4.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 2.8% 19.3% 6.1% 1.3% 0.6% 3.5% 2.6% 0.3% Consensus: 4.6% 16.2% 7.8% 4.4% 3.5% 6.5% 5.4% 6.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992025 INVEST 08/19/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 41 45 52 56 60 63 61 60 59 62 67 72 76 80 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 47 51 55 58 56 55 54 57 62 67 71 75 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 44 48 51 49 48 47 50 55 60 64 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 35 39 42 40 39 38 41 46 51 55 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT