* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 08/14/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 49 49 47 43 42 42 41 38 38 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 18 14 24 26 33 30 30 24 25 22 22 22 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -8 -3 -4 -1 -4 -7 0 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 342 326 339 6 12 342 2 359 5 360 15 25 48 52 75 91 105 SST (C) 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.6 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.8 31.2 32.0 31.8 31.8 32.0 32.0 31.8 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 172 166 171 171 170 170 170 170 169 169 169 170 170 170 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 13 12 14 13 13 11 12 10 9 7 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 55 55 57 54 58 58 57 56 54 52 49 52 50 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -24 -30 -37 -23 -45 -37 -28 -19 -6 -15 9 -15 2 -11 21 -2 200 MB DIV -6 -4 -5 -14 -11 24 3 17 -14 39 -12 -1 -23 0 -7 0 -4 700-850 TADV 4 11 0 -6 0 4 3 0 2 0 -3 0 -1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 351 284 209 110 14 -157 -295 -435 -582 -719 -788 -780 -733 -657 -544 -403 -269 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.9 26.4 27.8 29.0 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.4 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.8 95.7 96.6 97.4 99.0 100.4 101.5 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.2 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 54 57 51 28 4 4 5 5 7 24 25 25 13 19 30 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 12. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 24. 22. 18. 17. 17. 16. 13. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.7 93.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 08/14/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.92 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.6% 12.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 14.1% 35.8% 29.3% 19.8% 9.7% 30.6% 27.8% 11.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 12.8% 6.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% Consensus: 6.6% 22.1% 16.0% 9.7% 3.3% 10.7% 13.0% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.8% 11.5% 8.5% 4.8% 1.6% 5.3% 6.5% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 08/14/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 08/14/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT