* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 08/14/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 22 28 35 41 43 42 40 41 42 41 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 16 19 13 24 25 30 27 26 21 26 22 23 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -3 -4 0 -1 0 -5 -2 -4 2 0 -5 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 355 350 319 345 11 350 10 359 16 6 19 41 67 87 113 130 170 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 28.9 30.0 30.5 30.2 30.6 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 31.2 31.5 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 172 150 169 171 171 170 171 170 171 171 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 14 11 10 15 11 15 11 13 7 10 4 9 2 8 1 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 58 58 57 59 59 59 57 54 52 52 48 50 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -51 -34 -34 -33 -33 -23 -23 -3 -16 6 0 2 -3 16 11 29 200 MB DIV -4 -11 -12 2 -14 -5 4 -3 35 3 11 -3 9 9 -1 9 7 700-850 TADV 0 6 10 -1 -6 5 1 2 -1 1 0 2 0 -3 2 -5 0 LAND (KM) 149 253 250 184 119 -62 -251 -405 -555 -510 -439 -376 -329 -187 -66 -102 -119 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.7 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.4 28.3 29.2 30.0 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.7 94.6 95.6 96.6 98.3 100.0 101.5 103.1 104.5 106.0 107.5 109.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 44 49 49 16 6 8 23 8 11 27 26 26 43 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 7. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 28. 30. 29. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 23. 22. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 92.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 08/14/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 151.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.99 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 23.4% 18.8% 10.5% 4.2% 8.2% 8.2% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 1.9% 8.0% 6.4% 3.5% 1.4% 2.8% 2.7% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 08/14/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 08/14/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 21 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT