* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL982025 08/14/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 21 27 35 41 45 45 45 46 47 46 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 20 23 22 22 24 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 24 25 26 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 7 9 19 15 23 17 27 26 28 27 29 30 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 3 -2 1 -1 0 0 0 -5 0 -2 -2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 142 346 14 14 333 13 7 18 359 19 16 35 42 57 72 87 106 SST (C) 30.5 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.8 30.7 29.0 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.7 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 172 172 151 169 170 171 171 171 170 171 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 13 14 10 15 11 15 11 13 8 10 5 9 1 5 700-500 MB RH 66 62 62 61 62 59 58 58 58 61 60 58 57 55 52 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -68 -70 -49 -33 -28 -23 -14 -2 9 -3 11 13 11 -5 18 13 200 MB DIV 0 6 -5 -12 -14 -7 18 2 8 26 0 -8 -9 17 5 -14 7 700-850 TADV 5 4 -1 6 10 -3 9 -4 3 -4 2 2 0 0 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) -40 66 162 253 256 140 -32 -190 -339 -492 -497 -394 -308 -194 -104 56 -41 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.7 24.2 25.2 26.1 26.7 27.5 28.1 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.7 94.6 96.4 98.0 99.4 100.8 102.4 104.0 105.7 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 33 39 45 51 20 6 4 24 18 14 13 25 23 30 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 15. 19. 23. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 21. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. 26. 23. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.9 90.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982025 INVEST 08/14/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.98 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 12.0% 8.1% 4.4% 1.5% 9.7% 7.1% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.6% 4.0% 2.7% 1.5% 0.5% 3.2% 2.4% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982025 INVEST 08/14/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982025 INVEST 08/14/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 22 22 24 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 27 18HR AGO 20 19 18 18 20 26 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 26 23 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 24 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 24 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT